Hi,
@phildo123
The share price is currently being heavily manipulated and shorted by the big boys, it's very obvious if you watch the daily trading. I am not worried albiet it being depressing.. but there is no need to worry about the future, this is as safe as you can get really.. lithium boom hasn't even STARTED, so no need to worry about spodumene prices as they will be high enough for GXY to be making a solid profit on Mt Cattlin alone... could you imagine the amount of money GXY will be pulling in each year if we had James Bay and SDV running in the next 3-5 years..?
220,000 tonnes of spodumene a year from Mt Cattlin = $187,000,000AUD revenue.. minus costs? lets say they are $400 AUD per tonne (but im sure i've read that it was around $250 USD per tonne so should be less).. thats still over $100,000,000 AUD net profit in one year from Mt Cattlin.
Then lets say we get James Bay up and running within 3 years starting at 110KT/y (conservative).. you're looking at $150,000,000+ AUD total net profit per year (Mt Cattlin and James Bay)
Then you have SDV... lets say that gets running in 2021 if we can fast-track finance (maybe a HKSE listing with a share consolidation) or finance by debt, or even find some sort of JV partner. Let's say we produce 15,000 tonnes a year in 2021. So.. lithium carbonate has been seen trading at over 20,000 USD a tonne in the chinese spot market... Let's say we can sell it for half of that, at $10,000 USD/kg so (remember we have CHINESE contacts, and mitsubishi as the sale agent, we will have no trouble getting off-take agreements, imho). So, that's $190,000,000+ AUD - costs of lets assume (3,369USD as per SDV DFS, so lets say $4500/t) which leaves a net profit of: $122,000,000 AUD/year). So a combined total NET PROFIT for galaxy should be around over $272,000,000 AUD a year from 2021 (very conservative figure, could be much higher the following years).
Also, remember this?
“I am not ready to say a $20/kg price is going to be the long term global “new normal” but I am willing to say the average global price in 2020 will NOT be in single digits in any scenario absent a complete collapse of lithium demand which seems highly unlikely.” - Joe Lowry
I don't think we are going to be seeing anything close to a lithium collapse, in fact, if you do some research you will find the complete opposite. So i have no worries whatsoever in regards to the price of Spodumene as it is only a small component of the actual lithium that goes in a lithium-ion battery, let alone the cost component of the lithium in the lithium-ion battery.... so we still have room to be bullish on the Spodumene price.
If you sell at these levels you're leaving yourself extremely short of what could be in 4-5 years time. There's a reason this thing is getting manipulated and shorted like crazy, the big boys know how huge this will be and they're stealing your shares. Don't listen to Mac bank or any other bank, they obviously want to make money at your own expense!
So, with that I am going to be leaving HotCopper (this will be my last post), and will stop checking on my portfolio for a while. I am currently in the red with GXY, but i first started buying GXY @ 26cents, and GMM @ 31.5cents, and have been topping up along the way (including at the highs). This daily price watching is affecting my life too much, I know how sound this investment is and there is no need to worry by looking at the daily price movements, just think... in 2021, when we are making over $272,000,000+ AUD in profit, will our market cap still be around $700,000,000 or much, much higher?
And remember, it's a marathon, not a sprint. Don't worry about the current scheduling delay, or the manipulated share price. We will look back in a few years time and hate ourselves for not buying more. I wish I could but i'm currently heavily invested in GXY and unfortunately have no more funds to top up at the moment.
So
@phildo123 , these are my realistic thoughts
.
So.. I'm going to go enjoy life now.. see you all in 2019.
