Steve,
I think you are spot on the money here, however post ann and pre FIRB there could also be some consolidation.
However,
If you look at a historical chart October 07 - Jan 08 (drilling of Zeus 1) you will see some consolidation leading to drill result followed by run up again before results announced.
I think we should see similar reaction this time around, hopefully not with the fall post drill result.
Cheers
My opinion only.
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