The faults shown in the seismic in the Quarterly certainly look...

The faults shown in the seismic in the Quarterly certainly look real but given the data quality gets very poor at the edge of the section it's impossible to say if these are connected to a deep gas source. The overpressure seen in WE3 is unprecedented in the Perth Basin (it is almost double the 'normal' pressure observed at these depths). You wouldn't expect to see 9600psi until depths well in excess of 7-8000m based on other openly available data in the basin (if you know how to read it). It would be highly unlikely that the faults in the Carynginia would be open all the way to a gas source at these depths. I personally suspect this is a local anomaly around WE3 and I expect WE4 to be similar to WE2 based on location - mild overpressure in the Wagina section.

As for the fill-to-spill comment, it is certainly possible given the location of WE being the first bump out of the basin to the east (Dandaragan Trough),. If this is so, then it bodes well for South Erregulla which appears to the be natural spillpoint. It also bodes well for any prospects in EP320 (Beach,AWE) which will be where the gas is likely to spill into (disclaimer I hold BPT !). If you think of these fault terraces like a staircase, the bottom step gets filled up first (West Erregulla?) it then spills up to the next trap (South Erregulla), and so on. Waitsia is probably near the top of the staircase, Beharra Springs Deep near the middle and there's likely lots inbetween - you just need reservoir, a trap, a healthy exploration budget and a management team willing to accept that occasionally you will drill a dud well.

I'm not sure many in our industry would call Strike's announcements conservative - you have a great asset with plenty of upside so no need for the fairy dust to drive up the Shareprice.