bluesdog...We actually ended up with 3m changing hands.By "walk...

bluesdog...

We actually ended up with 3m changing hands.

By "walk away" I am really referring to "changing hands"...or in other words, old expectations being replaced with new...and of that part of the free float prepared to sell at current levels, we now effectively have 3m less shares.

I do suspect a bit of curn today, so the total of 3m may well only represent a net change of just 2m or so?

Anyhow, given how tight this register appears, that is a significant number to wash through such a stock after such a stellar run, yet see the price actually close higher than yesterday?

The players tried to knock this down today...it did not work!

VWAP a comfortable 37.2c...so with 38.5c on the close, we have not exactly stretched the friendship here.

Finally, I bought a few of the heads myself today on the retrace...being patient like everyone else for the most part...but once the volumes reduced to negligable levels and I proactively placed a bid at the top of the queue...the frogs started jumping over me.

This suggests two things...

1. More than a few were of a like mind and also read the reducing volumes and intra-day trading patterns as signs of the turn;

2. Those responsible for the little churn that did go on here today, in an obvious attempt to pick up more for less, were not particularly happy for an "outsider" to be getting their stock...lol

All up, this suggests to me an exhaustion of sellers for the most part.

This does not mean it will not fall tomorrow, but it does mean the stock is positioned to rise in a natural market...all things being equal...as such, to fall from here, it would take a negative news event, be it local and stock specific or international and sector specific...or perhaps decent effort from the "players" to knock it back.

All things are possible...but volumes today, traded ranges, VWAP and above all else, intra-day trading patterns do suggest more potential than not for rises from here...but not necessarily every day.

Perhaps one of the most important comfort points for me is the relatively consitent volumes day-on-day over the last 4 sessions, clearly suggesting a blow-off-top has yet to eventuate.

Again, whilst this does not ensure the price will not fall, it does suggest that we have not seen a wholesale exodus from core holders (typically what happens in a blow-off top day), so whilst we may or may not see a rapid rise from here, conditions are not evident for a significant downwards push. As such, any weakness should see buying interest...as we saw today!

Interestingly, some important psychological lines in the sand ahead...in particular the 40-42c line, which equates to a 100% profit line for many. A break through here would suggest a far more robust and likely sustainable run may well develop.

Options premuim also tends to support this view.

lol...did I leave anything out?

Cheers!