are we on a winner?, page-11

Fishead

I did state that it was unlikely, but what about:

1) sovereign risk/security issues (PRU recently pulled their people out of IC). Ross Mining had to abandon the Gold Ridge mine in Solomon Is in late 1990s due to violence. Bougainville, etc;

2) plant break down or poor performance (eg Lihir, RSG, etc in last 2 years)

3) lower than expected production due to overestimation meaning potential profits impacted on the non-forward sold ounzes. Very common in high nugget deposits.

The probablity is low but the financial magnitude for a bad outcome is growing, therefore, risk must be increasing (risk = probability * magnitude of outcome).