I have occasionally wondered whether, in the continuing absence of Foothills, we are primarily an oil producer or a gas producer. Someone noted in a post about a month ago that we're a gas producer and this had also been my vague impression so, using recent production reports, I set out to see which asset was generating the greatest $. I think I've resolved it, however my number crunching has shown why the auditors must be tearing their hair out. Quite apart from the litigation and payment defaults and consequent penalties which are headaches in themselves, the numbers we are/were being presented with each month are at best confusing.
My first problem was to determine what unit values had been assigned to oil and gas in the monthly reports. I figured that since Goose Creek and CWS only produce oil, this would be where I could determine the oil price per bbl which I could then apply to the overall monthly oil production and that by difference from the total oil and gas revenue I would then have the monthly gas value. Wrong!!
The activity reports are a little misleading if you don't read the fine print so for clarity:
The "January Monthly Activities Report" issued 29 Jan 2019 is for November 2018 production and for cash received in December related to that production;
The "January Monthly Activities Report" issued 28 Feb 2019 is for December 2018 production and for cash received in January related to that production;
The "February Monthly Activities Report" issued 3 Apr 2019 is for January production and for cash received in February related to that production.
If you go back to each of those three activity reports you'll find that the weighted average revenue reported for Goose Creek/CWS is:
Nov 2018 production - US$86.36/bbl
Dec 2018 production - US$65.27/bbl
Jan 2019 production - US$77.91/bbl
The averages of the daily closing prices for XTIUSD for that period are:
Nov 2018 - US$56.52/bbl (range US$50.36 - 63.53)
Dec 2018 - US$49.11/bbl (range US$42.51 - 53.18)
Jan 2019 - US$51.81/bbl (range US$46.43 - 54.29)
The AOW-reported figures are meaningless; every one of them is outside the range of daily XTIUSD pricing during that 3 month period. Worse, the reported revenue for Goose Creek Dec 2018 production was US$22.37/bbl and for CWS was US$92.01/bbl, and Nov 2018 production from Goose Creek was at US$111.28/bbl.
Given that those numbers were absolutely useless for my intended calculation I then took the monthly average daily XTIUSD closing prices and applied them to the reported monthly production data. This gave:
Nov 2018 oil - 5,720 bbl @ $56.52/bbl = US$323,335. Total reported revenue (oil + gas) - US$275,177. Interestingly, the report notes that there's no revenue recorded for Peak Energy as "Peak Energy revenue will be received in January". Well . . . yes . . . but the report is dated 29 January so why wasn't the revenue included? Or if need be, hold the report for a couple of days so that the missing Dec revenue figure could be included. That revenue also wasn't reported in the second January Monthly Activities Report (the version dated 28 February) so that's an unreported chunk of revenue. Note also that the reported total of US$275,177 is an incorrect figure; adding up the 5 individual revenues gives a total of US$247,199.
The closest I can come to resolving my original question is from the 28 Feb and 3 Apr reports:
Dec 2018 oil - 4,039 bbl @ $49.11/bbl = US$198,373. Total reported revenue (oil + gas) - US$292,302. The oil revenue - at 67.9% of total - represents far more than 50% of the combined revenue;
Jan 2019 oil - 3,122 bbl @ $51.81/bbl = US$161,752. Total reported revenue (oil + gas) - US$222,092. Oil revenue is again far greater than 50% of the combined revenue so I'm cautiously willing to accept that we're more an oil producer than a gas producer.
It's troubling that these reports are so sloppy and I can't help feeling that they're symptomatic of the management of the company in general. Columns of numbers that show an incorrect total; successive monthly reports with the same title; data missing when it shouldn't be; unrealistic revenue numbers - these discoveries weren't the purpose of my number crunching but they come as no surprise. When you add that sort of confusion to debt repayments missed and shareholders hit with a US$500,000 penalty as a result, plus the repetitive over-promising and under-delivering, it's little wonder that the audit's not yet resolved.
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I have occasionally wondered whether, in the continuing absence...
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