One of the nice things i like about CCP is that the results for the year, although forecast, do not appear to have been leaked; volumes have been very light lately and the SP has had no particular direction.
I think the consensus is for a 16c dividend and would be mightily surprised if it was less than 15c or greater than 17c.
To me, assuming their are no surprises in the results, the main issue of interest will be the forecast earnings for next year. I am hoping for a forecast earnings growth of around 10% in 2013-14.
As far as I can tell the core business will grow by a touch over 5% on the back of higher PDL purchases made in 2013-13. The remainder of the growth must come from the relatively new businesses of a) consumer lending and b) the expansion of the bridgehead in the US.
It is possible for the consumer lending business to double next year. The 'invisible' plus for this business is that due to provisions being taken up early profits get delayed. This means that it should start contributing to the bottom line for the first time in 2013-14.
The PDL book in the USA should more than double next year. If say, it is $8m at the end of June, it could double, or better, to say $20m a year later. I am hoping for this. Also as the AUD continues to fall against the USD we may pick up some FX gains along the way, especially if the US operation is profitable. Here's hoping that they are not having too many 'delays'.
Expecting heavy volume tomorrow, and if the forecast is as i am hoping to finish the day up from today's nervous close.
K
CCP Price at posting:
$9.50 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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