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06:24
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Originally posted by ianwan
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I came across many negative comments on AUZ's funding deal with Bergen which I think the concerns are largely unwarranted. Top of the concern is the bad track record of Bergen which implies Bergen will ensure AUZ's SP to plunge so that they can make a killing by converting at low SP. Secondly, the timing of the deal also indicates that Sconi will not proceed and SKI will drop out. Both of the concerns do not make sense to me. Firstly, the conversion will only take place 2 years from now and it is impossible to suppress SP for 2 years. Sooner than later, SP will react to the progress of Sconi which management reiterated unchanged construction and production timeline in the recent announcements. This explains why the conversion was set at 2 year from agreement signed as management believe SP will be higher once Sconi commence production according to theirs and SKI 2020 timeline. Secondly, it is always at the interest of equity converter to see SP trending up instead of down as the conversion price is set at 10% discount to 5D VWAP. If SP trending up, u would enjoy unlimited upside post conversion whereas if SP trending down, the 10% discount could easily be wipe off post conversion. As such, i trust BB's rationale on the Bergen deal, i.e. Funding the Flemington $3.4m final option payment due in last week of Sept 2018. While I do see potential delay in Sconi BFS which is not uncommon for junior miners, i think market is over reacting and self panicking as I continue to see stronger investment case for Sconi including (1) SKI remains actively involved in preparing BFS and funding negotiations, (2) 9 financial institutions are providing feedback or what I read as competing in project funding even at suboptimal BFS, (3) management's reiteration of conservative commodities price assumption even after the recent steep correction of cobalt price, & (4) discovering of significantly higher reserves at proposed plant site and better quality Nickel were tested from the extended drilling program which will be feed in for optimal BFS due in April 2019. Based on the above reasons, i seriously think the market is self panicking.
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Ianwan you clearly know nothing about convertible notes! Besides, AUZ management have already confirmed to one of the posters here that conversion is at the discretion of the lender. Also ask yourself would anyone in their right mind lend $12M to a spec start up for up to 2 years for no interest and without the ability to cash out when appropriate??
