are you an ssn believer, page-54

I don't really need to know. If TB sounded confident to Wilson it could only be on the grounds of continued confidence for Aus II and Gretel and that the CoS for the jet pump was at least reasonable on Defender. Where else could he have been coming from? In any case it's historic.

Since Wilson's disclosure, Aus II has started a proper flowback, the fishing expedition would now be underway at Gretel and the jet pump would be in the process of being installed I guess. Nobody, not even TB can predict actual results with high accuracy until they occur .... but TB could and did (in the latest preso) pour cold water on the downrampers who had been trying to say Niobrara oil was not properly cooked in and around SSN's leases.

There are remaining risks and water cut is an issue on a majority of US shale wells (correct me if I'm wrong on this) but it is too early to get too excited one way of the other. In this game flow results happen when they happen .... water cut and increase of decrease dramatically during the flowback test period and the end result is known when it is known.

A bottom line is that SSN leases remain pretty good prospects and both the law of averages, some lessons learned and a convergence of results are likely to turn things around IMO.

cheers