are you feeling lucky....., page-8

I feel lucky.

Bounce Monday, as Monday has usually been the best day for it.

More falls tues, wed, thurs to around 11500-11700.

At that level the market has more than priced in a small recession (say a 5% pullback over 12-18 months).

If earnings reports and forecasts are very positive though then the decline may be arrested about 11700-11900.

In any case, the collapse of the DOW in such a rapid fashion is good for the ASX longer term, as the DOW will hit a stable lower level sooner.

The ASX does not need to DOW to start rising to recover to a more sensible level - all it needs is STABILITY of the DOW at a new level to return investor confidence. I think Aust. stocks have been fairly well hammered to close to as low as they can go without being ridiculously undervalued so I see a bottom approaching fast - about 5500-5600 - probably closer to 5500 as that has a stronger "emotional" component of support being a rounder number.