i'm getting more bullish everyday....not helping the psyche however i'm a contrarian, and this is what contrarians do..i short banks and WOW and buy NCP...
too hard to short this mkt -- no comparison to '87, whatsover.. provide examples why this market is like '87..
media is driving the bus.. when they stop controlling the market and investor focus on fundamentals, well you can make your own mind up what to do then..
market is hysterical, which is sure sign of a reversal... timing however is a little difficult to predict... .. S&P p/e on 03'estimates right now is under 15 --- 15 is the historical average, not historical lows ..
having said that, last night was not capitulation, there is more downside... but we are getting closer and closer to the bottom with each fall.... this is not bullish thinking, it is contrarian... look it up. Bulls will be selling stock at any price -- not contra's..
This market is no different in greed wise when Nasdaq was being pushed to 5k and longs got annihalated.. or S11 where shorts got annihalated..
The S&P p/e historical average is in line, and this bear is doing its job superbly in that respect with the wreckage.. and very much needed..
Bull or Bear it doesn't matter... if you are short and stayed short WELL DONE... but you have made nothing if the position is'nt closed and money sitting safely in the bank..
I did not buy Nasdaq at 5k and I'm not shorting DOW at 8k - to my thinking it is just ridiculous..
To contra's,this is an opportunity so watch very carefully...
before anyone goes on and says 'bulls in denial' - as the heading indicates,,,to educate you that contra's are not bulls and are not bears either..
I was short NCPat $26.50 (it traded to $28 eventually) I am long NCP at $10 - with a minute set of puts which will offset any imminent losses from long calls.
YES my strategy is picking tops and bottoms with certain deriv strategies so I can milk the reversal and the trend for as much as possible...
Bears are having a ball... and good on them ! I was super bearish when XJO was 3500 and DOW 10000...I made my money from being bearish at the top... inexperienced bears treat your shorts very carefully and milk this downturn for every cent.... and more importantly, put your winnings in the bank..market can turn savagely one way or the other, so unless you locked in the juice no need to conduct any dances..once you do lock in fat profits then will recieve the full accolades you deserve.
A contra answering your questions, crashy.
1/ I don't watch t.v 2/ I am short right now, but geared on the upside. 3/ yes that is what contra's do, but calculated. 4/ I don't think the economy is fine... but it is improving 5/ I question valuations all the time. 6/ I bought NCP my only long and short because it is technically where I want to buy it. 7/ No i am not expecting a bounce -- I am expecting a bonafide reversal. 8/ If you are a long term investor - the law of averages indicates that if you buy on long term support with an improving outlook fundamentally, then you should be right. 9/ I saw the top and played it.. now I am playing the bottom. 10/ Yes indeed - again a question of timing - requires a robust capitulation first - which we havn't got -- but close. 11/ NCP is trading on per sub 20 at '03 estimates with no imminent writedowns.. is that expensive ? 12/ On the contrary banks and property will fall as they are the last remaining bastion.. 13/ I wasn't in the market in '87 -- there are no comparisons from my studies.. so that comment is just ridiculous. 14/ I have ridden many bear markets in the past and know when it gets hysterical that indicates its time to lock in fat profits. 15/ I am bullish because market valuations are getting better and better by the day..but i am also 80% in cash.. 16/ You have a good point, but that question can be easily reversed in 10 trading days. 17/ Where all hope is lost and investors sell at any price.. last night was close to capitulating but no cigar...
