"case rested." ... if only ...With another three months before...

"case rested." ... if only ...

With another three months before we get to vote on the deal maybe some more persistent posters need to pace themselves or risk causing others to stop listening. I was strongly against Allkem merging with Livent in the lithium sector and was one of a few who attempted to keep the flaws in the proposal front of mind on hc. Much of the time hardly anyone posted support for the merger but nearing the voting day a couple of posters appeared from nowhere and very actively bombarded the threads with half truths and red herrings favouring the deal. Could have been from the advisers to the deal or maybe just mischievous amateurs but at the end of the day those in favour of the deal won out. So maybe the moral of the story is don't do with this deal what myself and others did with the Allkem deal. One suggestion is to keep your powder mostly dry until just before the vote otherwise the swinging voters will tune out from you well before they get to vote.

And this constant harping about one of the key personnel at Silver Lake does it for me: I have started skimming over posts that talk about muppets and puppets and something to do with the evil empire or whatever. I heard an analyst on Money of Mine say that under this management Silver Lake and also Perseus are the only two current ASX goldies that have made more than they have spent so maybe the management are not entirely the reincarnation of Voldemort as is being pushed by some here.

Strategically, I agree with the company moving in to the rarefied ranks of gold companies producing in excess of 400kozpa. As Mark Zeptner of Ramelius has been saying for some time now the metrics that +400kozpa producers get assessed on are more generous than for smaller operators, that is, the bigger companies tend to be valued at higher multiples. I think the window for Ramelius to make that jump is getting smaller and smaller as the closure of Edna May approaches. Everyone is seeing this move as a battle between Silver Lake and Genesis but I suspect Ramelius was also kicking Red5 tyres and for some time Ramelius and Silver Lake have followed similar paths. So I support the bold move by Silver Lake to grab one of the few remaining tickets into the 400kozpa club.

Also, having at least one operation with a relatively long life of mine, such as Red5's combined King of the Hills and Darlot mines, should placate those institutions that fret about the concept of SL proving up reserves just-in-time. I have no idea whether Sugar Zone will also fill that long-life-of-mine role: perhaps the drilling campaign results to date at SZ are suggesting it won't so jumping on Red5 now rather than when Silver Lake have to release the SZ results is probably a prudent move. (I still hold out hope that SZ results will be positive but with Red5 assets added to Silver Lake's stable a failure at SZ becomes not so crucial).

I have yet to give much thought to the sale price the SL team have settled on or to Red5's seemingly dire hedging position and I am not familiar with Red5's operations other than that the Red5 has done well to turn things around there in the last 12 months. As I indicated above, the vote is not till mid to late May so I have plenty of time to work my way through forming a view of the sale price. Besides, I think there may still be a chance of some action from Genesis or Ramelius on Red5 to muddy the waters up.