i apologize for this very theoretical post. mondy brought up a very interesting point, which led me to do a little math. do not take this post as financial advice and only do your own research. all numbers in usd.
capex/t for gln stage 1:
118,000,000 / ~5,400 = ~21,900/t
i would credit between 15 - 25% of stage 1 capex to stage 2. in my opinion this means, that investing in Stage 1 will indirectly allocate an amount between 18,000,000 and 30,000,000 to stage 2 investments.
if you reduce the stage 1 capex (~120,000,000) by ~20,000,000, you get ~100,000,000, resulting in an adjusted capex per ton of approximately ~$18,500/t.
applying this ~18,500/t to a 20,000tpa chloride operation gives you a capex of 370,000,000, from which you can reduce the ~20,000,000 and finally get a capex of 350,000,000.
i've been expecting a capex in a range between 350,000,000 - 400,000,000 for 20,000tpa for a chloride operation. this corresponds to a capex/t range between 18,500 - 20,000 usd/t.
according to the latest announcement from ake (09/25/2023), sdv's capex/t is 22,911/t for a carbonate operation.
i admit that the chloride route of gln does provide a cost savings compared to a carbonate operation, so i think the 350,000,000 is realistic. anything below 400,000,000 would be significantly cheaper compared to a carbonate operation.
in addition, our opex will probably not be significantly more expensive because we do not differentiate between technical and battery quality in our end product. the cost increases in carbonate operations are almost exclusively due to increased fuel costs and additional chemicals to achieve a certain quality of end product. almost all of these points are not affected by gln.
everything in my opinion. i'm looking forward to the final dfs.
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