Uranium developer Bannerman (BMN) delivered a Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) for its 80% owned Etango project in Namibia.
The PFS articulated higher than expected operating costs of US$38/lb for the first five years, and US$41/lb over the life of mine (LOM). Argonauts expectations were US$35/lb LOM.
The market responded viciously, marking the stock down from $1.15 to $0.63 in three trading sessions.
Although BMN deserved some pain, the market has over-reacted. Etango retains a number of redeemable features:
Size The remodeled resource (Uniform Conditioning method) of 152Mlb @ 227ppm enables a large production rate of 5-7Mlb pa over a +16 year mine life Exploration upside - >30km of prospective alaskite stratigraphy Rigorous costs The US$25-$35/lb operating costs often quoted by junior uranium competitors could prove optimistic when subject to more rigorous studies Flotation concentrate option Laboratory scale test-work has demonstrated 5-6% mass pull, if proven on a larger scale this could lead to significant capital and operating cost reductions Ultimately BMN is a highly leveraged play. At Argonauts long term uranium price forecast of US$70/lb the stock is valued at $1.01. At US$80/lb the valuation rises to $1.77 and at US$60 it falls to $0.24. Current long term prices are ~US$65/lb.
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