ARI 0.00% 2.2¢ a.c.n. 004 410 833 limited

ARI vs FMG

  1. 169 Posts.
    For the full year FY14...

    FMG sold at 86% of the 62% price
    ARI sold at 90.5% of the 62% price

    So ARI gets about 5% more per tonne.

    ARI cash costs are AUD$48
    FMG cash costs are US$34 or AUD$37 (audusd 0.92)

    So ARI's cash costs are $11 /t more.

    Using say Iron Ore (62%) at AU$103, 5% is $5

    So FMG is ($11- $5) = $6 / t more profitable

    BUT Arrium generates cash from Mining consumables

    say EBITDA $170m less SIB capex ($35) = $135m

    You could divide $135m / 12.5 (production) = $11 /t

    and then deduct this from ARI's Iron ore costs.

    So ARI and FMG have the same cost base in effect! +/- a few dollars

    Which business has lower gearing? ARI

    Which business has a lower interest rate?
    ARI 5% compared to FMG 7.5%
    * there is a reason for that.

    Is ARI trading to reflect this compared to FMG?

    No, ARI should be much higher!

    OR FMG much lower.

    This all assumes Steel is cash flow break even after SIB capex (50% of DA) going forward

    The writer implies no investment recommendation.
    This report contains material speculative in nature. Investors should seek professional investment advice. The writer owns shares in Arrium.
 
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