Until such time as the money raised gets used for the purpose it was indicated it would be used for(paying back at least 732m in debt) ARI will continue to be valued on the basis that $580m remaining that should have gone towards paying down debt has been needed elsewhere,to shore up the companies finances in less than 6 months.
If you don't believe that likely,then ARI is worth nearer 48c.If you suspect that is the case then ARI is worth around 15c comparatively with negative sentiment.Prices at both ends of the spectrum.
Given ARI indicated debt could increase between $100-300m by December,when in June it had $650m or so in cash and cash equivalents,indicates a negative sentiment could reasonably be warranted.
The mid of $200m is around this halfs planned Capital expenditure.
On a break even scenario for all divisions ARI could in theory be sitting on $650+580 ex capital raising less $200m Capital expenditure =$1bn in cash in a breakeven business.
Now what a pack of fools this Board will look if that is the case.
That $650m however plus recievables equalled current liabilities,so in reality,little spare cash other than that likely to be generated from sales.
I do however suspect that past Capital works debt don't appear as debt until such works are completed and then allocated debt on completion(e.g. builders financing construction until mortgage taken out by buyer once plant handed over on completion and reaching specs)
So if you look back at last years Capital expenditure,then plant upgrades won't be paid for until meeting operational specification milestones.
Beyond this DYOR + DYODD and I hope there is a very embarrassed board either sitting on more than it planned for and less than I suspect possible and they are hatching a cunning plan to take shareholders per share nett assets back to $1.30 and more per share in one foul swoop -nah not that savvy to my train of thought so negative sentiment is WELL WARRANTED and wondering whether to sell the very few I could afford at 18c to pretend some of my ARI investment has shown some positive returns.
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