Sidonicus, the pollsters can do better by making their sampling more representative of voters in a state.
If they try to cover geography (ie don't just sample in Red or Blue areas), gender, age, political leaning (ie oversampling Democrats or Republicans skews the final figures) etc and then at the end of it try to assess whether the forecast makes sense before releasing it then they'll do better.
But do they want to do better? A number of them make their money by deliberately putting out skewed polls.
If a party wants to increase political contributions to their campaign then they need to look like they're going to win. You can make it look like you're going to win if multiple polls show you way ahead.
You can get polls like that by paying off the pollsters, corrupt but effective.
Closer to the election the pollster will need to save some credibility if they want their business model to continue for future endeavours so all of a sudden the polls tighten like magic.
Politics is a dirty game.
