Originally posted by AverageJoe
I don't understand the modern tech especially the services provided but AAPL was always a smartphone seller where they make the most of their profit locking folks into their eco system and then find some BS reason to tell you why buying old models still command a premium. AMZN is more than an online retailer and makes its money from cloud but they pile back all their profits to grow their company. This is my understanding.
Being stuck 20years before paying dividends would destroy my outlook in investing. Opportunity cost.
Ok, lets try to see the wood from the trees. Put our personal perspectives aside on Apple or Amazon.
Now, I had the impression that you are saying conventional wisdom is that EVs are more a long term thing, and won't have an impact short term. is that correct?
All I am saying is, look at data, and in particular look at history. These changes happen very fast. Apple grew into ~ trillion dollar company, despite people like you and me not understanding why people buy apple products, and despite being written off as a business in 2006 by conventional wisdom. Our personal view on their product means zero. The parallel with Tesla is clear.
From 2006, Apple gave investors 20x to the peak, 15x to today, despite GFC and all sorts of lower cost competition out of China. I don't care if people don't like Tesla, or EV, or don't believe in the EV story. The data tells me China is growing at 60%+pa, uptake is accelerating, and ICE is going backwards. Cars are far more important to economies around the world than iPhones. The states are huge for Japan, Korea, EU, China, US...
China is the biggest auto market in the world and EVs are growing 60% while ICE goes backwards. its not a close run thing. ICE is getting crushed on the trend. Is EV a small % of total? Yes. But how long till it is material? Compound growth is wonderful. By 2025 China does 33m EV's if current growth holds up and is 100% EV's. Now that is more EV's than anyone predicts globally by 2025. So will it happen that fast? probably not? Lets halve the growth rate, from today. EVs go to about 40% market share in China by 2025. Kind of a big deal in a short time right?
You took a pot shot at Tesla for not making profit? Maybe they have been ploughing all their cash into developing an autonomous driving system that on its own would be valued at $100b, or arguably more than Waymo? Maybe they have developed battery and electric motor technology that the engineers in Europe don't understand well enough to even copy? Maybe they are like Amazon for EVs? What would I know, I am just a guy on the internet.
But I think writing off the EV story because Tesla hasn't made a profit for more than a couple of quarters is crazy, to be blunt.
Sure, use a chart to get your entry and exit point and gauge sentiment, just don't use it to gauge a company's value or judge the industry segment it's in. A uranium spec this is not.
