Is it DFS stage yet?

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AverageJoe

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21/06/19

08:28

Post #: 39166318
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Originally posted by prawn_man ↑

Amigos, if the last 2 years has taught me anything, it is one fundamental rule - we have to keep a keen eye on a companiy's stage in the cycle. So I'm posting a couple of charts. Chart 1 is copied from Brent Cook and it is handy for anyone who is investing in junior explorers. Now compare it to the history of ARL's shareprice in Chart 2. We should note that the discovery of the laterite nickel/cobalt ore was made prior to the listing, so the concept and pre-discovery stages were short for ARL and not typical of most smallcap resource explorers.

Conclusion:
1) ARL is in the Orphan Period. Lately, posters have repeatedly pointed out that speculators/buyers have left the market. We are waiting for Institutional Investment to fund the nickel/cobalt/metal refinery. It is a textbook example of the Orphan Period shown in Chart 1. We are on the border between feasibility (DFS) and the start of the development stage. (Frustrating, but it won't last for ever.)
2) In contrast, ARL's gold exploration is truthfully in the pre-discovery stage. There have been some promicing results, but speculation has not really started. In my opinion amigos, it will be the discovery stage and the following specuation stage for gold which we should be ready for. A good strike with the drill-bit by ARL could see gold drive a repeat of the spike to $2:00 that occurred in late-2017 (as shown in Chart 2). Amigos, be patient and be prepared.

Chart 1 (below): A chart analysis of typical stages in the shareprice of junior mineral explorers.

Chart 2: ARL's shareprice since its listing on the ASX.

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Is it DFS stage yet?

ARL Price at posting: 37.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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0 Great analysis

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Last 48.0¢		Change 0.005(1.05%)		Mkt cap ! $95.84M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
47.0¢	49.0¢	47.0¢	$31.02K	64.59K

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	10000	47.5¢

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
50.0¢	8826	1

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	10000	0.475
3	20212	0.465
1	2000	0.460
1	2000	0.450
1	2222	0.440

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.500	8826	1
0.520	22885	2
0.540	50950	1
0.560	15000	1
0.595	6009	1

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ARL (ASX) Chart

Is it DFS stage yet?

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Is it DFS stage yet?

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