yes, at current Ni, Co and exchange rates, our 2.25Mt scenario goes from $450m earnings to $340m earnings.
About $150m drop in earnings comes from the cobalt price decline, which is offset by the improved exchange rate, and according to SMM, nickel price slightly higher than PFS assumptions.
throw a conservative 5x multiple on earnings, and the undiluted upside here is just shy of 40 bags at current metal price and exchange rate.
if we end up with 4Mt throughput, undiluted upside on 5x earnings goes to 60 bags.
if I leave cobalt where it is today, and take nickel to $20k/t, the upside numbers above improve by about 12%
ARL chart, page-1303
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