ARL chart, page-1889

Someone (Ardea shareholder) contacted me directly and asked what I thought about the persistent buying in Ardea by Instinet Nomura.

I have been considering the possibilities and have shortlisted 3 scenarios from my perspective.
Disclosure, I have no information beyond what is public, I see the buying by Instinet Nomura as for and from one entity ultimately, the buyers wish to remain anonymous at this stage. The buyers are using Instinet Nomura as a front (Dark Pool) with hidden ownership.

Possibly 3 scenarios are relevant.

Least hostile is a person, company or organization that wishes to take up a large shareholding in Ardea. This could very easily be Instinet Nomura in their own right, they may see great opportunity. But I think not.

Most hostile is an entity wishing to take up position before launching a hostile takeover, its covert and undisclosed until they declare or we find out. You need to understand that this is possible but IMO unlikely. If they tried they would need a 90% vote in favor from shareholders and that will not happen with a very tight small share registry IMO, the very committed top 20 will band together to fight the activity.

Desired outcome and 3rd possible scenario is that an entity is taking up a position in advance of approaching the company to discuss offtake and funding of Goongarrie. They may feel that once they approach the company, leaks will happen and the share price will rise substantially costing them more than necessary. So its a preparatory insurance measure to accumulate in advance. Ian has been very solid about the requirements to date, so this entity will know what is required, it will come down to negotiation ultimately.

I feel, if it is scenario 3 the entity will most likely have signed off internally in principal that Ardea are the most desired company they wish to engage long term.
This is my opinion and there are other possibilities.
RED