ARL 5.97% 71.0¢ ardea resources limited

Hey! We’re back around $1. Posting on the way up means I can...

  1. 4,804 Posts.
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    Hey! We’re back around $1. Posting on the way up means I can post in the way down too so here’s my take on the week’s action.

    Downward pressure factors:

    The DOW is on the edge of a technical bear market.
    There is wider talk of a U.S. recession.
    Nickel stocks have stabilised and prices have as result fallen ( for those who don’t know already I’m happy with USD$10~ a pound as higher than that risks pushing more battery makers away from NCA/NCM ).
    Interest rates are on the march which means ppl need to put more money aside for their mortgages/loans.
    China’s pursuit of ‘covid zero’ ( I think it’s partly being driven by a need to round up ppl who aren’t ‘faithful’ ), which is keeping some factories etc closed.

    Upward pressure factors:

    Sadly the only one I can see is a peer losing a big chunk of their market cap, which hadn’t moved up much even during the nickel price spike.

    On balance I’d say cash will still be King for a bit longer.

    We almost closed the 94.5 cent gap but didn’t quite make it. I think we might have seen a bit of a bull trap ( a very small one ), yesterday & that there’s a little bit more selling down to go. Green shoots a field does not make but it was of course still good to see some decent buying.

    The 100,000~ unit bids ( buy side ), seemed to move quite a bit though- telling us that they were at least in part as lacking in sincerity as the big offers (sell side ), were.

    In other words nothing really out of the ordinary at all, when we look at the wider action. The only real difference being the size of the perhaps less than sincere positions on both sides of the table.

    The DOW’s 1.5~% bounce up will be seen by many as a bit of a dead cat bounce & there is likely a little bit more tussling around the $0.95-$1.10 range to come before things get moving upwards again.

    I think it’s worth reiterating that a little bit of cash may be flowing our way from a distressed peer. That may be giving us a tiny bit of support we wouldn’t have normally had. They’ve lost twenty to thirty million dollars in market cap recently.

    That money has had to move elsewhere which means somewhere between $0 and that total has likely come here as we are so often compared as junior peers and a few of us ( not me ), hold stock in both companies.

    Edit: snap! @Chalks takes me a while to make some posts and this was one- good to see a new poster pop up while I was typing!
    Last edited by ClockworkSmurf: 14/05/22
 
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