Here is a bit of Ardea trading history/patterns one needs to be cognisant of as we are about to move into a period where this knowledge will come useful. Most long term shareholders have lived through this and know the story. [This is not a TA but more of a shareholders demographics analysis]
- Longer term - Ardea trades well along the 45c corridor (+ and - 10%). Main reason for this is the diamond hands (Top 20 + Long term supporters) are sitting here and wouldn't part with their shares plus they usually start buying more here. So its hard to bring price down below this level for a sustained period.
- This corridor is breached when there are catalysts to the upside or general market downturn to the downside. Ardea has never put a foot wrong and therefore we don't often have stock moving down due to stock specific news but only because of market factors.
- The second key level we see is the all important 70c Level where we have done the last 2 Capital raises in 2022 and 2023. This is a level where new shareholders have come in (e.g. Golden energy etc). Some of those (specially from 2022 raise) sold during the Emu lake but some held on. The folks who came in 70c during 2023 raise are mostly all there. This is an important level and if this breaches it will be get very interesting very fast.
- This 70c is also important from the point of view of PFS and Japanese MOU announcement. The stock went ~89c but more of less traded along the 70c corridor. So it does act as bit of a magnate.
- Then we have the $1 level where the stock traded for a while when nickel was all the rage. This is a phytologically important level and one where some people start to take profit (fair dinkum) - Some new shareholders did that after the 2022 raise. This level is also important as some long term shareholders came in to Ardea after the nickel squeeze and they became part of the register. There entry point was higher than the 50c and 70c demographics.
- The area highlighted in circle is the traders moving in on momentum and leaving when they made money. This happened during the Emu lake days when Nickel prices were high and market jumped onto nickel sulphide news like anything. Lot of traders and momentum players come in at this level and they leave shortly after making their living.
Other important thing to consider is the 200k volume - I know its tiny - But this is a number very important for Ardea as more of less we trade somewhere in the 100 - 300 corridor.
Now why I brought this up today. I see a breach of 50c level - which doesn't happen often and only happens when there is a catalyst. we have also been trading at the higher end of the volume corridor every now and then.
I am keeping a close watch on these price and volume levels and I like what I see. I understand this is not a TA in modern sense but some rule of thumbs that I go by!
What I anticipate happening is a breach above 70c, rally getting stronger because of no volume, settling below $1. What happens after $1 is in the hands of traders at this stage. I will re-assess at that stage.
(20min delay)
