arl going bust?, page-4

Blast From the Past,

There were actually individuals who believed these returns could be made at the time. Regardless of the mathematical projections of the reality of our situation made(below)

Just following on from the projected returns I have tried to make an annual table below of projected position of the fund based on the WC bench mark allocations of our funds and numbers they have provided.

Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Opening .45 .41 .44 .47 .51 .55 .60 .67

Distribution -.06 -.06 -.06 -.06 -.06 -.06 - .06 -.06

Income (10% pa on 55%) .02 .02 .02 .03 .03 .03 .03 .04
Growth (25% on 45%) 0 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .06

Closing .41 .42 .44 .45 .46 .48 .50 .53

My assumptions are that NTA is 45 cents
We get 6 cents a year paid out to us.
On 55% of our money we get no growth just 10% income
On 45% we get a annual return of 25% income and growth
Growth portion is calculated on closing previous year balance so it does compound.

SNIP..........

Hello Iceman.
Thanks for your work on this matter. Your contribution is most valuable and I am somewhat surprised at the outcome.

I intend to do my own spreadsheet to investigate some different scenarios but before I do I need to clarify the iterative part of your calculation. Normally spreadsheets which evaluate yearly iterative functions move the year end result from one year to the start of the next year. I can not see where your calculation does that transposition. I can see year 0 result (.41) going to the start of year 1 but then the result of year 1 (.42) is not transposed to the start of year 2 but becomes .44 . Likewise there is a discontinuity for all the following years.

Can you please explain?

This financial analysis is extremely valuable and most appreciated