Hi again Flip, in the interest of reading through the BS and technical detail, I was doing a quick summary between ARL and AUZ deposits during lunch break and realised the method AUZ use to calculate ore reserve in the BFS (see Appendix 2 at https://australianmines.com.au/brochures/downloads/BFS_supports_strong_commercial_case_for_developing_Sconi1.pdf), has the following price assumptions (all in $AUS)
- Ni = 23,516
- Co price = 88,185
- Ni Recovery = 90%
- Co Recovery = 90%
And then I noticed the updated ore reserve used to announce the $5b free cash flow number and enhanced life of mine (https://australianmines.com.au/brochures/downloads/Sconi_to_generate_5_billion_in_free_cashflow.pdf) has the following assumptions (in AUS)
- Ni = 27,946
- Co price = 93,135
- Ni Recovery = 94.8%
- Co Recovery = 95.7%
I don't follow AUZ closely, but am I right to think part of the increase in its ore reserve has come from just increasing the price and recover assumptions? its almost a 20% increase in the Ni price assumption alone... Do you think that is why the pre-tax IRR on the Sconi project hasn't improved at all despite the increase in size?
Just so folks can see, I've got the ore reserve statement for ARL and AUZ compared side by side below - not much in the contained metal figures, albeit ARL is using significantly higher cut off benchmarks (which is why our feed grade and economics are better, imho).
Below it are the resource statements - noting ARL is for goongarrie south only and AUZ for Sconi only.
Ore reserve statement ARL AUZ 1 Mt 40.13 57 2 Ni grade 0.82 0.6 3 Co grade 0.09 0.08 4 contained nickel (approx 329,066.00 342,000.00 5 contained cobalt (approx) 36,117.00 45,600.00 6 Latest Cut off grade assumptions ($US) .81% Ni Eq, Nickel price $15,120/t, Co price 96,000/t .4 - .45% Ni Eq, Nickel price $19,841/t, Co price 66,137/t 7 8 Resource statement ARL - goongarrie Sth only* AUZ - Sconi only 9 Mt 98.7 75.7 10 Ni grade 0.74 0.6 11 Co grade 0.07 0.08 12 contained nickel 729,300.00 455,579.00 13 contained co 67,700.00 57,157.00
*note: ARL uses a different cut off grade for the resource statement, which includes >.5Ni or >.08 Co.
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