RRS 0.00% 0.1¢ range resources limited

It sounds good (though the 8:1 thing is an energy conversion,...

  1. 478 Posts.
    It sounds good (though the 8:1 thing is an energy conversion, not a 'monetary value' conversion- 24:1 is more appropriate for monetary value conversion at current gas/oil prices), but the elephant in the room is dilution. If Tangiers can make it to the drilling stages without diluting too much (can they? I'm not up to date with their financials- need to brush up my knowledge concerning latest developments soon), then it will have indeed been a sound investment.

    But it's far into the future, and no one can predict what funding will be needed at this stage. I mean, back in 2004, who would have thought Range would have issued 2 billion shares, consolidated them 20:1, then gone on to issue another 2 billion shares after it? I'm not knocking Range here, just stating any predictions on dilution needed for Tangiers will likely be inaccurate at this stage.

    Seems like a solid investment for $2 million though. It's not like Range are losing much if the plan doesn't come off, or their shareholding gets diluted out of existance- but the upside is considerable, if mass dilution can be avoided.

    Taking the lower estimate of 71 trillion cubic feet of gas (for conservatism), and applying a 35:1 conversion value in monetary terms (party for conservatism, and party because I think oil prices will continue to rise over the next few years- natural gas prices less so), gives 2 trillion BOE. Most gas is recoverable- you'd have thought at least 50%, so make that 1 trillion BOE, and apply a 10% CoS (as it's offshore), and 1% stake to Range (to account for dilution, which will be inevitable).

    Even using those very conservative figures you still get 1 billion risked barrels of oil equivilant (that's monetary value, and all completely recoverable). Which is worth a damn sight more than $2m. Even at a $3 a barrel valuation that's still $3bn added to the market cap- which would be worth £1.00 a share today.

    But it is of course years away, and any number of problems could surface. Seems like a solid investment though- limited downside with high upside.
 
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