I have been expecting a low around June 28th, and someone here asked could it be a high.
Of course, I am stupid and said I didn't think so, but now think maybe it can.
The standard Armstrong cycle of 8.6 years comprises legs of 1/4ths and 1/8ths of that or 785 and 393 cal days.
His major low in Nov '02 was close to the Oct lowest point in the US but not exact.
His major high was 26th Feb '07 and produced a sharp downward move world wide and some countries, Japan and India etc, have still not exceeded that top, while most have soared to new highs.
Now, using that cycle and offsetting it to the XJO top in 2002, and using that 393 cal days I got some amazing turns in our market.
The exact number is 392.64 days and I just used 392.
From the 2002 high it gave the exact day of the low in 2003, it was one day out fora high in 2004, it was exact to the day for the 2005 low, and was only midway of the correction in 2006.
Still using 392 days it gives 28th June as the next point but using 392.64 would be about July 2nd or first trading day of the new financial year.
Of course that makes more sense for a top than a low especially with financial year end window dressing and super arrangements.
The 392 day sequences seemed to be giving altenate highs and lows since the 2002 high but that is not how the Armstrong sequence is supposed to run.
In theory it is 1/4 up to left shoulder, 1/8 down, 1/8 up to the head, 1/8 down, 1/8 up to right shoulder, and 1/4 down to major low.
13/03/2003 was our major low and higher low in the US and an exact prediction to the day.
If we use that as the start of an offset from Armstrong's then the major head for our market was not Feb 26th but is July 2nd 2007.
That does not mean it has to be the extreme high before the next major bottom as that may come with the right shoulder. The major bottom would be Sep 2011.
2011 is a Bennenr cycle low and has a good historical record.
The standard Armstrong cycle has its major low in May 2011.
Our market since '82 has been running 62 month turns and that may continue. '82 low + 62 was '87 top + 62 was '92 low + 62 + 62 was 2003 low and would suggest May '08 as a possible high and July '13 as a major low.
However we are up 50 months and if the top is this month, then a low could + 50 or July 2011, close to the standard if the squence has changed from 62 to 50 or whatever depending on the current ongoing top.
Probably confused you and myself, but the point for me is that action going into end of June/start of July will probably be determinate in future behaviour.
It will be a June pull back that allows more upside or it will be a late June top that starts a serious decline.
(20min delay)