Just a time averaged model projected forward, likely something,...

Just a time averaged model projected forward, likely something, such as a subset of the market, XFJ, will fit or be close to fitting for couple cycles, then it will swing way out by years as it has in the less important, with regard to his fitting, distant past.

A close fit could also be attributed to the investment community chosing that date when it is reasonably close, rather than the date chosing it, so it does carry some weight in that regard.