The LC life cycle obviously relates to an idealised one project...

The LC life cycle obviously relates to an idealised one project company from discovery through development etc, excluding the impact of large commodity price cycles. ARR 5 year chart has obviously been impacted by the rise and fall in RE prices for starters. Secondly, ARR is a two-project company and until end 2021 it was all about LaPaz and it's potential and market updates.

The price jump in Oct'21 was related to US President's Executive Order Critical Minerals... so one could argue there was little in the way of discovery speculators interested in LaPaz particularly. Looks more like ARR rightly caught the early tailwind of rising RE prices and US support for reshoring critical mineral production. The next jump in Oct'22 was related to a 117% increase in LaPaz MRE and coincident bounce in RE prices. Jan 2022 was RE price blowoff euphoria and unrelated to any project specifically imo (HCk maiden drill program beginning Mar'22). Then the rot set in with the RE bear market...

The LC specifically correlates periods of price movement with stages of a project's discovery and progress through feasibility studies etc. Projects that do not get to feasibility studies are not Lassonde subjects, simply stillborn failed discoveries. LaPaz looks like a failed discovery, pumped during a RE market bull run, and the lack of any scoping study over the journey sort of proves it...

So we have a typical 'up and down the mountain' failed explorer run. It seems fair to assume ARR would have gone much lower over 2023 if it only had LaPaz alone, and the 2023 price base reflects the overlapping effect of ARR sinking on LaPAz in a RE bear market but good results, large size and behind the scenes met success of the Halleck's rising star. Then we have Jan'24 run up in share price just after a met breakthrough, big lift in MRE (though everyone looked at drilling results knew it was coming... simple geology and maths) and excitement over the much hyped SS coming up.

My comments on the LC relate to HCk on the assumption LaPaz is history and the steadily building value proposition of the HCk project was reflected in the share price over 2023 (when ARR should have been falling further) and the rise in 2024 on recognition of the breakthrough met 'discovery' which has jumped HCk into the breakaway pack and a potential podium finish. The MRE, met breakthrough and SS all have more than a whiff of finale about them, where expectations have been set as high as further drilling and met work and studies will achieve imo, and thus my call it might be a long and tough couple of years ahead grinding out the permits and tightening up the facts and costs...

Infill drilling may make a discovery of much grades, met work may deliver even better results, costs may fall and margins rise... or all the other direction (my call, but an easy one to make). Of course, RE prices rise strongly and so will the share price, all things being equal. Just identifying where a project is on the LC doesn;t set anything in stone, project or price wise. It's a simple tool to consider what price drivers or lack thereof lie ahead, and how the market traditionally reacts over that period (being cum-raise numerous times during boring studies doesn;t help, all while worrying how diluting that final development raise will be...).

To be fair, maybe the speculators all over the LC reality marked ARR down in a rush post CR knowing where it was all heading and the orphan period is already compressed into months and priced in? There is always a chance of being taken over during the study lows before the funding and development is locked down... one of my favourites