arrowhead report $6.03 - $17.95 valuation, page-24

Finally, someone is making some financial sense. =)

Don, you're right in that 100% debt funded is impossible. If you raise equity, that's really dependent on when the company raises it and what share price will it be at that time and this will introduce more variables to the model. And if the company raises equity at low price, it will be a lower value when you calculate NPV/share.

If potash drops to $300, yeahh, pretty much STB share price will be screwed.

Your calculation shows a $4.75/share based on today's volume of shares. That may very well be correct as my model will probably show $3-$4/share (depends on what assumptions are used) BASED on today's number of shares. However, no one will actually push it all the way to that price simply because of the fact that there will be more dilution along the way. So, the $/share value will keep changing as time goes - which gives opportunity for traders to have a good time with it.

As always, if you're willing to buy now and wait for 4 years, and make sure that you keep buying to avoid dilution of your stake, then if the project is a goer, for sure you'll be able to make some money, as with all mining projects.