Priceless comes to my mind, as the game progresses with Woodside in the news regularly now & the perhaps 1 of the Elephants in their data-room!!
For now, I've done a quick number crunch for valuing Artemis & thought I'd test MEO's theory as well, as reported in their recent preso (Slide # 15)
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Listed Shares: 417.322m
MEO's interest: 70%
P50 resource (i.e GIIP): ~9.5 TCF
Rec Fac: 70%
Net Rec Gas: 4.655 Tcf (MEO's share)
Artemis's IGV: 0.625c (US 50c/GJ convt'd to current AUD)
30% Success rate: $872.8m or A$2.09/sh
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Worth noting here is,
1) US $0.50/GJ, which is a very conservative IGV multiple for now.
2) Higher rate of success (~28-30%), unlike Zeus where it was 10%.
Karoon's valuation done back in '07 was done at ~28% success rate based on proximity to Woodside's Scott Reef, Brecknock fields & their own robust data modelling.
IMO, explorers only use a higher rate, when confidence in analysed data is high, as it helps them understand their acreage lots better in relation to their neighbours.
For now, positive indicators for Artemis are, the presence of a gas-chimney, structural closure & a gas-water cap, all pieces of the same puzzle.
Good thing for MEO, is the proximity of WA-360P to Wheatstone & Pluto, so data correlation is fairly straight-fwd, something the farminees would b interested in too. Prior to the complete 3D dataset, the picture was half complete, remember!!
Just my thoughts.
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