In the BioMuse study brain atrophy progressed by 4 % / year, and during the first and second 6 months some 2%. These are similar cases to those in the placebo group in the 201 study. Now we have a bit different patients in study 202, these have had MSA symptoms for more than 4 years, most likely more difficult cases. In these cases, the atrophy progression was stopped with ATH434 during the latter 6 months in those whose symptoms did not progress.
Looking at the standard deviations in the BioMuse study, it seems likely that the three in ATH 434 treated in the 202 survey (whose symptoms did not progress) could not be outliers among the 10 patients, many of them still lacking the 1 y atrophy measure. So these cases most likely can be compared with the ones in the 201 study treated with ATH434 despite the difference in how long they have had the symptoms.
It is self-clear that brain atrophy will progress in the placebo-treated MSA patients as will also the symptom scores. It also looks to be almost clear (?) that in the 201 study, 434 treated will have less brain atrophy and symptoms than the ones in the placebo group at the end of the study, because that is happening at least partially in the more severe cases of the 202- study.
This is how I combine all these 3 studies we have. Stopping the symptom and atrophy progression is (?) connected to ATH434 treatment in 201 and 202 studies.
This is still speculation, do your research.
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