nkarp,I think if for example Alcan doesn't choose OSH the price...

nkarp,

I think if for example Alcan doesn't choose OSH the price will come off simply because some traders have bought in "punting" they will get the contract. Sentiment in the market is bad and hence the price could suffer in the short term.

However even without the pipeline and gas reserves the stock is trading at over a 30% discount to NPV at a time when the Oil price is racing higher and we see comments from OPEC that they simply cannot meet demand!!! OSH should be booming.

As Merrill Lynch have pointed out oil stocks should be running hard and they believe (as I do) that the spark will be continued high oil prices post war. Inventories are very low and excess production is low.

So basically I think 70c is cheap and you get the "free" upside of the pipeline or alternative projects. While the price could come off if Alcan doesn't sign up I don't think it will affect OSH come closer to mid year.

Cheers,
Munch.