WE dare not even mention India, given the sticky wicket our willow wielders find themselves on, but will bowl up this sub-continental oil play nevertheless.
Oilex is the type of junior play that floats Criterion's boat, in that it targets quick production in known fields close to infrastructure, rather than chasing wildcat plays.
Oilex already has production in Indonesia and Oman but it's the recent results at its Cambay field in India that has attracted the most interest.
Last week, Oilex reported 500 barrels of oil per day flow at Cambay, with the potential for a 500-1000bopd flow rate.
Across all its operations, Oilex looks to have reserves of 20 million barrels of oil and 60 billion cubic feet of gas.
"Combined production from India, Indonesia and Oman could see the company exit the 2008 year with net oil production of 700 to 1000bopd," broker Hartleys says in a report.
Oilex posted an $8 million loss on $4.6 million of revenue in the year to June 30, with this year shaping up as the transformational one.
Hartleys forecasts current year earnings of $7.8 million (EPS of 5.5c), rising to $66.6 million in 2009-10 (EPS of 42c).
Oilex is unhedged and much depends on the oil price assumptions. Hartleys assumes a current-year average $US88 a barrel and an average US77c exchange rate.
The firm conservatively values Oilex at $2 a share. "A further discount due to market conditions still means Oilex is still significantly undervalued," the firm says.
We rate Oilex a speculative buy. The stock looks cheap with a $78 million market cap and cash backing of $18 million, although it's no rarity in that regard. The two-way takeover tussle for Turkish producer Incremental Petroleum suggests the scope for further action in the junior sector.
OEX Price at posting:
59.6¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
