TON 9.09% 1.0¢ triton minerals ltd

Article in today's W/E Australian, page-14

  1. 1,667 Posts.
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    Agree and disagree with you Mr Plough.

    On SYR, yes I cannot get my head around its current SP. It's a bit of a protected species because it's inside the ASX200 but I believe you need to be a lot braver to hold SYR than you do versus TON, given the scale of potential losses from where we are today - just my opinion.

    I do have a lot of confidence in YXGC - when you research their customer base you see the true picture, but accept without their financials it's easy to convince either side. That being said, anyone offering finance to TON would not do so unless they were confident of the status of YXGC. They would, under Confidentiality Agreements, have access to full details, so in my mind the fact that we've already had one Finance package offered is very promising. Rumours of further finance packages just reinforces my confidence.

    Reality is, at the moment, 'most' well known Instos won't invest in Graphite. This is more to do with their risk tolerance rather than the potential financial returns. If you look at the Bell Potter research article they have applied a 2% increase to their discount rate in the DCF cash flows, and then taken a 40% haircut to total NPV to bring their valuation back into a range so that their forecast valuation doesn't look like multiples of current SP. Why 40% - projects risks yes, but primarily so that they don't go out with "perceived unrealistic" price expectations. If/when MNS get their mining licence this haircut will likely go down to 20 or 30%.

    At the end of the day, yes there are risks but in my opinion, these risks are being over inflated by the bigger end of town, opening the door for some pretty substantial arbitrage opportunities for the retail / small fund / boutique equity investor.

    The key, and I agree with you, TON needs to get rid of the traders, get a few corporates, boutique investors on board, and well, become a bit more of a boring stock.

    I think we'll find very substantial interest in this capital raising, and will not be at all surprised if some good safe names have bought some pretty big chunks. Forget the rah rah retail SPP's, if retail investors want significant returns you need support from the big end of town. Just look at SYR.

    I believe with significant Cash at Bank, TON has a very bright future. I would not be at all surprised if it challenges the 90's high this calendar year.

    On my phone, so apologies for any typos.
 
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