Mathematically, an S-curve or the sigmoid function has its rate of change at a maximum at 50%. That just means the 'steepness' of the curve is maximum at 50%. Beyond that value, its starts to slow down again. Theoretically, maximum growth is at that half way mark. EV sales today are just starting to climb into that curve.
I disagree on a few points here.
* First and foremost, its pure economics. EVs are approaching cost parity with regular ICE vehicles and due to continually decreasing battery prices, will undercut them (
Europe is supposedly there already). With far less than 1/10 of the moving parts of an ICE vehicle, they are more reliable and obviously have lower running costs (refuelling/charging). Additionally, their performance, due to the high efficiency of the electric motor, is on average vastly superior to ICE vehicles. The approaching $100/barrel is another incentive.
* I don't think charging stations will be a big issue. It really doesn't take much effort to build up the infrastructure from an existing grid (as opposed to hydrogen cars for example). More relevant however is that people just don't use them.
'Only five per cent of electric vehicle (EV) charging takes place at public charging points, as drivers overwhelmingly opt to charge their cars at home or at work when possible.
That is the finding of a survey carried out by Transport and Environment, a campaign group which aims to promote cleaner transport across Europe.
According to the group's research, which was released late last week, it is the lack of choice and availability of electric cars that is the principal barrier to the mass uptake of EVs across the UK and Europe, not the availability of public recharging points.'
[source]
Hydrocarbon fuel gives the driver ZERO options for refuelling a vehicle. So the assumption has been made that most people will want to go to charging stations. It looks like this isn't the case. This flexibility is a strength of EVs, not a detriment. As the study states, recharging point availability isn't limiting uptake.
* Plug in hybrid will disappear along with ICE cars, though more slowly.
- Plug in hybrid is already losing market share to pure EVs ever year.
- Extra complication/expense/maintenance with two separate engines.
- Plug in hybrid is still very polluting and will eventually be regulated out also.
'Newly-released data from TMC highlights worryingly-high fuel consumption and emissions in real-world driving for hybrid vehicles.
The data has been released as official car registration figures for August show a 47% rise in hybrid car sales compared to last year, and some leasing companies report a 300% increase in orders for plug-in hybrids.
TMC’s real-world driving data shows plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) to be among the highest-polluting company cars in terms of greenhouse gas emissions during real-world use by corporate fleets.'
[source]
(20min delay)