article of interest, page-29

Matthew Hulbert | Forbes

Oil is not going to end, and the "big game" is about to begin



Recently, proponents of the theory of "peak oil" have hard times, says columnist Forbes Matthew Hulbert. "Not only is the opening of non-standard fields in the world smoothed" peak "predicted by Hubbert, but we discover more and more fields of the new standard" in all regions, says the author.

In East Africa, is now a real "oil fever". "It began the rivalry between East and West for the wealth of this region," - says the author. This is referred to in the title of "big game".

It is interesting that the Europeans are at the forefront, but when you look at a map it seems that China and India should have been easily take over the concessions. Indeed, Beijing and New Delhi to ask the price Eastern European assets, but European players are not born yesterday. "For European companies boards of directors of East Africa is fast becoming a priority region because they have lost the Middle East, saw the deteriorated situation in North Africa, Latin America, staggered, and Russia was on the brink" - the article says. If East Africa is destined to supply Asia, the European "supermeydzhory" want to dictate terms and prices.

China has relied on Sudan, but the separation of Southern Sudan led to a sharp decline in oil production, the author continues. In Juba, the capital of Southern Sudan, they say: that diplomatic efforts have moved off dead center, you need to attract European companies.

"But it will be resolved in Kenya, which will run the boundary between the regional influence of the East and West" - the article says. In Kenya, the oil has been discovered, but the main role of this country - the role of a hub on the way to the fields in East Africa to foreign markets. Then China can partially regain their losses - to fund infrastructure and to "tie the Kenyan exports to the presence of Chinese Navy in Indian Ocean," the article says.

African countries, for their part, are trying to get his own benefit from competition in Europe, USA, India and China - raise taxes on capital gains for oil and gas companies. Among other issues - political instability and the threat from pirates. "But despite all these minor interference, major European companies would not neglect enormous deposits, which are abundant in East Africa. Moreover, the potential for the future remains a big deal" - the article says.

In the world once again begins a period of abundance of hydrocarbons. "In East Africa, the question is not whether there will be oil and gas liquefied rock, and who will be major players in the market, whether the company is East or West" - the article says.

Energy prices will not grow, predicts Matthew Hulbert. "Not surprisingly, cheaper oil futures on the background dynamics of the spot market," - he says.