@dubspec @Muss1
Appreciate the points of view
And a worthy article Muss1, thanks for sharing
Sure there are a bunch of assumptions in there, but I like your train of thought and as you say it points to TCH being potentially very undervalued and certainly warranting further investigation.
On AFY, I am fairly confident you will see quarterly growth rates of betweeen 50-100% for fy17. Based on your valuation this puts it close to reasonable value for a company in the ultra growth phase...
AFY recently just posted on Instagram that they reached a milestone of 1 million orders.
Now, I can't find anywhere a quoted figure for their average transaction value. But they do quote that it is 20-30% above average for retailers like General Pants and Cue etc. knowing those businesses pretty well, I'm picking an average transaction value of between 180-200 dollars for AFY.
So, some basic maths.
If they just passed 1m in orders, at even $180 ave transaction value, puts them at $180m in underlying sales since commencement.
And total reported underlying sales up to end of Q1 have been reported to be $80m.
This would be Q2 underlying sales at $100m against Q1 reported at $42m.
Considerably more than 100% quarter on quarter growth.....
I wait in anticipation for H1 results. But as I've quoted before, I believe Q2 will see sales of 90-100m.
For me that puts AFY in the high valuation category, but absolutely deserving that valuation.
