NEN 0.00% 22.0¢ neon capital ltd

article on exxon's 'huge' find in vietnam, page-24

  1. 2,408 Posts.
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    Pablo, in theory an sp is meant to represent the underlying net asset value. Generally at premium in a bull market and at a discount when economies are slow or bad.

    The reality in my experience is that the sp rarely represents the actual trading value or market value of the net assets at any time other than a takeover.

    At this time a gang of financial wizards and resource pointy heads are thrown at the assets from both sides of the takeover until something acceptable is found or the takeover falters.

    So the price under takeover will be for both developed and undeveloped reserves in the US plus the quantified undeveloped reserves in Vietnam assuming success.

    A broad brush broker yard stick is $5 a barrel for inground undeveloped offshore oil and 50c per mcf of gas. These are the typical values shown in broker/analyst reports. In truth the these values approximate a far more rigorous analysis that take into account development of the resource, field life,remaining cost to develop, finance costs, production costs, field decline, infrastructure availability, sales agreements in place, market accessibility etc etc.

    But as a ball park the 50c a mcf and $5 a barrel will give a rough guide to value once we know the reserve size.

    The 50c for gas is too broad brush in general given gas values vary hugely around the world far more so than oil.

 
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