NEN 0.00% 22.0¢ neon capital ltd

Bang on T-Shirt - companies (of this size and risk profile)...

  1. 260 Posts.
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    Bang on T-Shirt - companies (of this size and risk profile) never get full value until a takeover occurs.

    As far as your rant BPPA and peanut comment, if you recall - I did say it was my next BIG CALL - and actually - I am sticking to it.

    Here's why - markets are currently open for O&G CR's - a good sign for companies like NEN. SEH just raised $53M, PVD has done numerous lately and in the middle of another one. Several small ones also on the CR train (NGY for one).

    In January - it is generally a quiet time as people are on holidays. So will NEN run the risk of waiting until Feb on low cash balances??

    Why would they? Hopefully they get the test away soon, then announce, then expect a CR once there are flow rates. I only ever suggested a "low price" of 25c if they couldn't get the test away (a distaster scenario for us). I am still predicting $0.35-$40 for a CR of $15M+.

    Lets do a quick cash flow. $400k per day spread rate (likely more!) * 120 days = $48M (pre test). So $48M-$25M carry = $23M times 25% = $6M. Another $10M for an extended production test = $2.5M. Plus overruns on 120 of say net $3-4M adds up to $12-$14M total. With $20M or so in the bank - that equates to pretty much "nervous territory" for the directors.

    Finally - I can't help giving my OPINION on the 10 year comment. Ask yourself why Exxon wouldn't comment and PVN did?? PVN want domestic cheap gas developed as fast as possible. Exxon want the best commercial outcome and are prepared to wait for it. Anyone who thinks Exxon would develop this quicker really doesn't understand the situation in Vietnam. You can also guarantee FLNG is a highly unlikely outcome in this part of the world purely due to weather conditions. FLNG can NEVER be disconnected with current technology, unlike FPSO's that can.
 
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