ARU Chart Thread, page-2387

Three major issues in past 17 months crazybull that have seen shorts in control.
1. The sector overall has been - still remains in the doldrums. Profitable producers in Lynas and Pilbara Minerals are high on shorts sights - sp declines.
2. ARU delays in finalizing financing and FID - very significant derisking event.
3. Beijing's RE low price manipulation.

Notwithstanding there has been significant share accumulation by insto's manipulating the SP at will (and yes some paper profits to boot). The market in my view is awaiting 2 - the FID and the final details attached plus stage 2 information which is all anticipated to reduce the current risk attached. Sure significant debt yet a very large portion with Aus and Canadian Governments on highly favorable terms.

Beijing's price manipulation is already being removed as discussed here - global govts from Turkey - US - EU - UK etc are employing significant tariffs which more than levels the playing field for ex China supply - as expected further pricing structures will be used in the West in the near term.

The sector will shift cycle in due course - the substantial ex China supply deficits in coming years when ARU commission Nolan's and ramp to full production plus begin stage 2 will be perfect timing although 80% of our product will be locked away with an awesome mix of global Tier 1 customers whom one would expect those relationships to blossom over coming decades - the 20% spot will be the kingmaker in 5 years time at full production that will satisfy financing for stage 2 and any securing any further debt extensions if required for such.

The shift in ARU from a spec explorer - wannabe to miner - refiner is happening in full earnest - behind closed doors some of it remains for now - but only for another 30 days - then we and the market will have full understanding of financing structures - equity component - participants.

PS I do admire how our South Korean partners are being highly transparent with ARU and securing ex China - ESG compliant RE's - some of our partners appear less forthcoming in fear of supply cuts from China - we may not even have disclosure for the final off take partner on such but that's fine but look at the enviable list of Tier 1 companies and countries and their diversity - sensational - many wannabe's are so far behind and that's the differentiation between ARU and others and why the Aus Gov - Canadian Gov - South Korean Gov - EU and the list of Tier 1 companies have secured relationships with ARU. SP will adjust in time.