ARU Chart Thread, page-2944

Hey @chokdee

I think you have some interesting points. But I find your posts hard to read. Maybe write your post and put into Chat GPT to summarise. It is a lot more effective. I have done this for your last post:

This passage reflects a commentary on the rare earth (RE) market, particularly focusing on recent developments in China, global competition, and corporate activities.

Here's a summary:

China's New RE Discovery: China announced a 5 million ton rare earth deposit in Sichuan, but the author questions why China has been aggressively securing RE resources worldwide if they have this significant deposit. They suggest that only concentrate suppliers to China will be affected by this, while Western companies like Lynas and Arafura (ARU) will benefit in the long term.

Market Trends and Stock Positions: The author notes a decrease in short/hedging positions and encourages understanding this dynamic. They also mention the upcoming resumption of RE pricing updates after China's holidays, predicting positive trends due to Chinese maintenance shutdowns.

Corporate Updates on ARU: The author touches on ARU’s 21st anniversary in November, hoping for a major announcement. They also criticize the handling of ARU's finances, pointing out rising CAPEX and delays, and speculate on internal board changes.

Equity and Funding Plans: The new leadership at ARU is positioned for early 2025 construction, with CAPEX estimated at USD 1.226 billion. The author suggests that ARU is well-funded with minimal equity requirements, advising patience on equity dilution concerns.

Global Rare Earth Supply: The writer highlights China's dominance in RE supply and compliance issues for non-G7 countries. They express skepticism about non-compliant suppliers like Africa and Brazil and conclude with an optimistic outlook for ARU's future.

Throughout, there's a mixture of skepticism, frustration, and optimism, underscored by the author's personal musings on shareholders, market behavior, and management.


What do you think?