Hi @Sterlo123
So the likely order of remaining annoucements:
.- Commercial bank debt (about $175 million (from memory)). Likely to be a club package (ie a few banks). I would imagine this is soon. However, from my project finance experience...these guys are a pain in the butt...like herding cats. But it won't be much longer IMHO.
- Off take annoucements (reamining amount). As you say above...this might be announced when the equity package is announced due to a 'cornerstone' investor.
- Equity - Cornerstone (likely Posco) and other funds and big players (Gina etc). Not far away either. 3-4 weeks max.
- Equity - Public - I have spoken about this previously. But in summary...to give the public the opportunity to be a part of the equity raise, the ASX rules state that the Offer Price must be AT A DISCOUNT to the SP (usually the last month's average or something like that). This is why lots of us have been buying at the current prices. We don't think management will need the Public equity. Gina and others probably more than happy to put in at a higher Offer Price to reduce dilution. The thing that would be preventing Gina from buying more (and others)....would be the Govt debt/debt guarentees....in the fine print there would be maximium limits allowed. I'm not an expert on Capital Raises and the ASX legal issues....but I did have a read and I can't see how ARU can raise at a higher Offer Price for retail investors.
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