Hi @Global123That is what I thought a few years ago....and China...

Hi @Global123

That is what I thought a few years ago....and China was the heir apparent.

But as i mentioned, i did a bunch of reading etc. When I combine it all i feel the following will happen:
- China will shrink back in size (declining population...and no innovation).
- USA will be come self sufficient (with some of its partners like Australia, UK, Japan, Taiwain etc. providing what USA can't). USA is now a net exporter of energy! So they will slowly withdrow from the middle east (ie they were only there to protect their energy requirements). They will move alot of their manufacturing to south amercian countires with cheap labour (already happening in autos etc.).
- Ever since the meeting in Bretton Woods (btw - on my bucket list to see in East Coast USA) just after WWII, the new world order was established. USA bascially said....hey...we have a great navy/military....and will protect the world's trade corridors. This was the start of globalisation. USA did this, because they needed alot of the world's resources. But now they are pretty much self sufficient (or heading that way)...so world trade will once again be ripe for attacks and disrupt global trade. Just look at how the Houthis in the Red Sea are affecting trade through that area. All the countires that rely on this trade will see their economies shrink massively.

Anyway...that is how I see it playing out. I will keep testing it out. I'm currently reading "The Price of Tomorrow". Amazing book about deflation.

I would also encourage people to read "The end of the world is just the beginning" - Its a little repetitive...but i think about 80% is very realistic....and happening.



Just on the USA debt situtation.....China holds alot of that debt.....and USA could just massively devalue its currency...making that debt worth much less...it also helps USA manufacturing and establishing it again. Sure there will be pain felt in lots of other places in the USA economy....but the structural change would set them up for another generation or two. However, USA could only do this, if they were self sufficient....which they almost are....So this coiuld be happening in the next few years!!!