Great in-depth analysis as usual @suitsurferRE: Comparative...

Great in-depth analysis as usual @suitsurfer

RE: Comparative market caps - I agree ARU should have a better valuation based on VHM, NTU, and BRE market caps when considering factors such as deposit, timeframes for FID, "shovel ready" project and production timeframes.

It seems that the projects closest to production are being discounted more heavily - ARU and HAS which are both "shovel ready", have a production timeframe in the near future and are close to FID. Almost as if these stocks have been manipulated to reduce investor confidence and subsequent ability to raise capital for 60/40 debt equity typically required for FID.

Particularly with HAS' revised costings - required remaining capital is down to only (473.5m total stage 1 capex - 152.6m already spent) = 320.9m which includes 27m contingency.Similarly the NAÏF loan of 220m + EFA loan of 160m = 380m & current 40m cash. Surely this would net a better market valuation than 46.74M. Especially where HAS has a TREO:NdPr ratio of 37% compared to ARU Nolan's 26%.

I could see why HAS has been valued poorly with likely conditions from NAIF and EFA on HAS not to sell to China & no other offtakes signed at current NdPr prices + outstanding secured-notes loan to Twiggy. Though this discount should not apply to ARU which has more government backing and ex-China offtakes. Even Iluka CEO Tom O'Leary has come out and said large scale western producers are not sustainable at current RE prices.

One thing for certain is that China's market manipulation and cyber security attacks are indications of China's reaction to the US and EU market restrictions on China sourced RE & EV's (announced in May https://www.copyright link/world/north-america/new-us-tariffs-on-china-could-help-australian-critical-minerals-20240515-p5jdob#:~:text=The%20Biden%20administration%20also%20slapped,per%20cent%2C%20effective%20in%202026. )

It's a matter of time until the effects of these are felt and the market wakes up to the shift - but that doesn't stop China from trying to delay us getting to production for now.

Disclosure - Not cross promoting but I hold both ARU and HAS.
All imo and dyor.