You raise some insightful points I hadn't considered. Particularly the divergence between Eastern and Western markets for RE & how HAS have that binding offtake with China - exposing them to the Eastern spot price.
It's subsequently interesting that HAS decided to re-sign this binding offtake in February24 after it lapsed in Nov23. Perhaps it was a necessary evil at the time, before planned US and UK trade restrictions were announced.
On point 5 - yes, unfortunately 66% of production target is tied to the Chinese offtake & market manipulation. However, couldn't the remaining 33% still be sold at the western spot price & still benefit from the premium on product from selling to the US/UK market, considering they still have the binding offtake with Thyssenkrupp?
Yes Twiggy's loan is weighing on HAS SH minds - there have been discussions about HAS' "guarantee" of the loan only being tied to the NEO shares per "ring fenced" presentations. Though without seeing the extended loan agreement we will never know & they are unlikely to ever share.
Thank you for your response and time Birchcorp - it's great to have this overview on ARU's market cap & intrinsic value in comparison with the only other supposed shovel ready RE project in Australia.
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