As I see it from the quarterly report issued on Friday, these are my thoughts having done some research over the weekend
1/ Although there are still some issues to be resolved at the LAMP, the down side risk has been significantly reduced.
2/ However the financial risk has increased significantly due the high rate of cash burn and as we all know, in business cash is king.
3/ It is now almost certain that there will need to be a capital raising which under the circumstance would need to be at a discount of between 25% and 30% to the market.
4/ The impact on the sp would be a double wammy with the dilution effect and the price falling to at or below the capital raising price.
5/ The prospects of raising would be almost impossible given that most institutions would see Lynas as toxic waist now.
From where I see it, $0.20 is a real probability in the next few days
as i see it
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