as requested ...

G'day Sandy, Arttse & all other interested parties.
: )
Not an 'expert' by any measure but will certainly contribute an opinion if it assists.

Doesn't get any better ....
The Vitol Group had a 2004 turnover of $81.1 billion USD, ($105.67 billion AUD), with 2005 turnover expected to exceed $100 billion USD, ($130.29 billion AUD) & is currently capitalised at a little over $27.3 billion USD, ($35.57 billion AUD).
It is an 'apex' company, one of the largest independants in the world.
: )
For more information about the Vitol Group, visit their website, .
The impact of having a financier of this calibre in Nido's backyard once again cannot be over-stated. I would encourage all to review the AGM presentation released 27/05/05, specifically pages 20 & 21 for a glimpse of the unrealised value of existing regional assets, that is, proven resources not risked exploration structures, to be exploited if & when a strategic relationship is formed with a major.

'High impact' elephant hunting comes a little later!
: )

As most will know, the Galoc field is not the company, simply the golden key that unlocks all that will be.
The spec calcs below are relating to the impact solely derived via exploitation of the Galoc Field. There is & will be much more than this, Galoc I believe, is merely the beginning & we have invested accordingly with that opinion.
: )

To answer your request Sandy & put figures out there, I have already previously posted conservative assumption reward tables of which you have read, (for those interested not having yet read them, click on my name, go to prior posts & access 'an opinion').
For a 'real-time' assumption reward table calculated at current prices, refer to a.s.r.#7 as below, please note that it is speculative fundamentalism & can be perceived as being quite optimistic but by others as still conservative.

For the purposes of these spec calcs, I will assume;
-the price of oil by the time development & production from Galoc begins remains >AUD$70bl, allowing also for the attributed value of the P.S.C. realising net values per bbl produced for NDO greater than AUD$40, tables @ AUD$35. & AUD$40.
-total daily production of 20,000bls, (the company has stated a projected plateau flow from two horizontal wells at 10,000bpd per well).
-NDO field interest remains unchanged @ 22.279%.
-the market applies p/e ratio of either 5X, 8X & 10X.
-calculations are net values not revenues or EBITDA.
-although NDO is fully underwritten for it's development costs via the G.P.C./Vitol farm-in, I will assume that prior to Galoc development, NDO issues a further 100m shares to fund Nth Sea development costs combined with post June options expiry resulting in an approximate capital structure of 750m shares.


*Assumption Reward Table #7.

Each horizontal development well flows at 10,000bls per day.
10,000bls X 2 = 20,000bls.
20,000bls X 0.22279 = 4,455.8 bopd net NDO.

i) 4,455.8 X AUD$35. = AUD$155,953. per day X 91 = AUD$14,191,723. per quarter X 4 = AUD$56,766,892. per annum.

a) Price earning ratio application of 5x = market capitilisation of AUD$283,834,460.
AUD$283.8m divided by 750m fpo = 37.84cents per fpo valuation.
b) p/e/r application of 8x = m/c of AUD$454,135,130.
AUD$454.1m divided by 750m fpo = 60.54c per fpo valuation.
c) p/e/r application of 10x = m/c of AUD$567,668,920.
AUD$567.7m divided by 750m fpo = 75.69c per fpo valuation.

ii) 4,455.8bls X AUD$40. = AUD$178,232. per day X 91 = AUD$16,219,112. per quarter X 4 = AUD$64,876,448. per annum.

a) Price earning ratio application of 5x = market capitilisation of AUD$324,382,240.
AUD$324.4m divided by 750m fpo = 43.25cents per fpo valuation.
b) p/e/r application of 8x = m/c of AUD$519,011,588.
AUD$519m divided by 750m fpo = 69.2c per fpo valuation.
c) p/e/r application of 10x = m/c of AUD$648,764,480.
AUD$648.8m divided by 750m fpo = 86.5c per fpo valuation.

To emphasize once more that these values are separate to any & all value creation achieved by the company through the development & exploitation of
current & future assets.
ie- Nth Sea assets, Cool Energy investment, R.O.D. fields, further Palawan Basin acerage.
The latter of which, if they can achieve this combined with the 'Vitol' factor, gets me somewhat physically excited!
: )

Reserve certification & DoE are the final ticks necessary though if a company the size & influence of the Vitol Group have completed their due dilligence & been satisfied adequately enough to commit their funds to this development, then one could safely assume the above is a formality.
I re-iterate the prior statement that in my opinion, NDO is truly a blue-sky company with five to eight times market capitilisation achieved within two years purely relating from Galoc earnings with substantial growth from that point achieved through the diversification & value of their current asset base.
I believe that one should research for themselves to either refute those assumptions, or, if they correlate, to get some portfolio exposure to this company or be faced with twinges of regret in the relative short-term.

Anyway, enough speculation for the time being!
I hope this assists Sandy, well done & many thanks for helping the forum in this latest development & like many others, will await the release from the company to turn a few assumptions into fact.
Many thanks once again to all for contributing to the NDO threads.

Warm regards to all & good luck in any & all positions.
: )

n.b.- Disclosure & sentiment covered in the above.





A side note, in relation to my post #610087, I made an incorrect statement of which I apologise for, retract & correct.
The point needing to be emphasized however remains the same.
*The Palawan basin's current production @ 6,400bopd, (<10,000), projected production from Galoc development is 20,000bopd equalling >%300 increase in regional product short-term.
Philippine national production is 26,000 bbl/d (est. 2003).
Philippine national consumption is 338,000 bbl/d (est. 2003).
Fillipino oil imports is 312,000 bbl/d (2003).

Galoc would then represent > 75% increase in domestic oil product in the short-term.


**re: who said things aren't moving..
Posted 01/06/05 15:56 - 696 reads
Posted by Blue Griffin
IP 144.136.xxx.xxx
Post #610148 - in reply to msg. #610087 - splitview

G'day Sandy.
Many thanks for the link, well done.
As far as I can ascertain, that release means that the J.V. has officially accepted the 'G.P.C.' development proposal conditional only on DoE approval.
This is very very good news!
: )

This is the last hurdle for Galoc, the question from the market will be the state of the Phillipine DoE.
Simple rubber stamp or to play hard-ball & what time-frames for said aproval are we looking at?

One would be inclined to think simply a formality on the basis of;
-The Filipino DoE would have been fully aware of interested parties in the development of this regional asset for the last five years, of which this proposal has been 9 months in the pipe-line, plenty of time for prior preparations, so approval a formality, if not why not?
-current Filipino national domestic supply/demand critically needs to encourage short-term production/exploitation leading to future 'big-hit' exploration so many pressures exist on the department to expedite?
ie- national production @ 6,400bopd, (<10,000), projected production from Galoc development is 20,000bopd equalling >%300 iincrease in domestic product short-term.
-an international major in the region to be encouraged?

We have seen an extra million come on the buy depth in the last hour so obviously the market is aware of & encouraged by this development, we shall see what occurs over the next 'two weeks' but simply very very good progress!
: )


Warm regards & good luck ...
: )