How do you arrive at your probability weightings of 20% & 80%?
Sure statistically the math works out but unless you know some secret way to accurately determine the likelihood of future possible outcomes then at some point you have to admit, somewhere along the way you are speculating.
Statistics, as you have described them, aren't facts. These weightings are based on 'assumptions'. Don't be fooled by the mathematical rigour of multiplying made up numbers together.
God help you and the money you have invested in this thing.
As serious as it gets, page-168
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