I agree that there is a long term risk of recession if the dollar continues on past the 80c mark (which even the shoe shiners are forecasting).
My strategy is to keep holding the $AUD until July, then try to buy into an offshore position. The "real" value of the $AUD (according to Ord Minnett) is around 66-68c, therefore mean reversion would suggest a 17% profit if I can get it offshore at a rate over 80c.
The big challenge is where to invest? I've always favoured the big US diversified companies such as GE, but I doubt I can trust the US economy (at least not until the election's over). Euroland's a mess and China has got another confirmed SARS case. Where can you invest? (I have heard Iraq is cheap at the moment).
